Projo Biz Blog

By Alex Kuffner
Journal staff writer

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- With national and local jobless rates climbing, economists expect the Rhode Island labor market to take more hits before experiencing a turnaround.

On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department announced that the country's jobless rate had climbed from 9.4 percent in July to 9.7 percent in August. The numbers for Rhode Island and other individual states will be released Sept. 18.

The jobless rate in the Providence-Fall River-Warwick metropolitan area reached 12.7 percent in July, the fourth-highest rate in the country for such areas with more than 1 million people, according to figures released Sept. 1.

The increase in the rate mirrors a similar climb in July for Rhode Island as a whole, where the unemployment rate also hit 12.7 percent, up from 12.4 percent the previous month and the highest in the Ocean State in at least three decades.

Economists predict the rate in Rhode Island to climb to 13 percent or higher in coming months.

"We're going to go well above 13 percent," said Leonard Lardaro, professor of economics at the University of Rhode Island. "I think 13.5 percent is not out of the question."

Lardaro said the economic picture for the Providence-Fall River-Warwick Metropolitan Statistical Area may be slightly better than the region around it. Rhode Island has only recently started to carve out a business niche, focusing on science and biotechnology, he said.

"In some ways, Providence is better-defined than the state of Rhode Island," Lardaro said. "It has a well-defined niche, arts and education and technology."

Still, the jobless rate in the metro area increased from 12.1 percent in June to 12.7 percent in July. The number of unemployed in the metro area went up from 85,800 in June to 91,100 in July. The number of jobless workers in July 2008 was only 56,400.

The area is hardly alone when it comes to a growing unemployment rate. Rates in 371 other cities and metro areas went up in July, according to Labor Department figures. Many are in California, which was hit hard by the housing bust, and Michigan, where the auto industry collapsed.

Among large metro areas -- those with 1 million people or more -- Detroit's rate of 17 percent was the highest, followed by Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., at 14.3 percent, Las Vegas at 13.1 percent and then Providence-Fall River-Warwick.

Extra: Details on the August unemployment figures from the U.S. Department of Labor.

 Tags  jobs R.I. labor market unemployment rate

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